Karnataka: An exceptional mix of Dravidian and Hindutva Politics!!

Karnataka had its 15th assembly election in May - a much discussed election 

While the media followed the election closely, the "exceptionalism" of Karnataka politics was not noted by most of the observers. So what makes Karnataka exceptional in the context of Indian politics?

Let's take a closer look at the results in 2018 - The two national parties - BJP and INC accounted for 74.2% of the votes! This makes Karnataka a battleground for the national parties, unlike any of the other southern states. To put things in perspective - In Tamil Nadu, the two national parties accounted for 9.26% of the votes in the 2016 assembly elections. In AP in 2014, BJP+Cong got 14.8% of the votes polled In Kerala in 2016, the two parties polled 34.4% of the votes.That makes Karnataka's 74% truly exceptional in the context of South Indian politics.

Nor is this a recent phenomenon - the two national parties between them have always polled well over 40% (in most cases 50%+) votes in every assembly election held in Karnataka between 1952 and 2018! This is worth remarking given that Karnataka is a South Indian state that speaks a "Dravidian" language and has a distinct regional political history of its own going back nearly two millennia from the Kadambas and Gangas right down to the Wodeyars in the 20th century.Despite its distinctiveness as a cultural and political bloc for much of Indian history, Karnataka, has post independence, resisted regionalization of its polity. The complete failure of Dravidian politics and the consistent success of the national parties in Karnataka has to be one of the most remarkable conundrums in Indian political history. 

But that's not the only thing worth remarking about Karnataka politics. The other exceptional feature of this state is that it remains in many ways one of the last strongholds of Indian National Congress party - a state where the Grand Old Party has enjoyed more success than perhaps in any other major state. In fact in the 66 years since 1952, the Indian National Congress has enjoyed power in Karnataka for close to 50 of those years! With brief interludes being 1983 to 1989, 94 to 99, and again 2006 to 2013. The dominance of Congress in Karnataka hardly has another parallel in a similarly large state - not even in states with bipolar polity - like Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP, where Congress remains a force, but has not been as consistently dominant as in Karnataka throughout history. In fact in the 15 elections since '52, Congress vote share has dropped below 30% except on just one occasion- in 1994, when HDD Gowda brought the Janata Dal to power. Till 1994, Congress vote share never fell below 40% in any election! Not even in the 1980s when it sat in the opposition

The other exceptional feature of Karnataka has been its hospitability to right wing politics - it was one of the earliest states to provide the BJP some serious encouragement. Very few states responded to the Ayodhya movement as viscerally as Karnataka did. Between 1989 and 1994, the BJP increased its vote share in Karnataka from 4.1% to 17% - an enormous increase. While BJP's remarkable show in 1994 may have fetched it only 40 seats, this was a remarkable rise of a party for which it is hard to find a parallel. But it would be inappropriate to trace back the rise of BJP in Karnataka to the Ayodhya movement per se. A climate of opinion favorable to conservative Hindu politics has always existed in Karnataka right from the 50s. The Bharatiya Jan Sangh contested its first election in Mysore state in 1957. Even in that early year, BJS got 1.3% of all votes in the state! In 1962 that vote share was 2.3% and in 1967 2.8%. This suggests a significant presence of the Sangh in the state from its incipience. When the newly constituted Bharatiya Janata Party fought one of its first elections in Karnataka, in 1983, it got a whopping 7.9% of the vote in the state! This was actually higher than the 7.7% that BJP got nationally in the general elections in 1984! So the point to be noted here is that BJP is not a force that emerged out of nowhere in Karnataka in mid-2000s under Yediyurappa's stewardship. A culture amenable to right wing politics has always existed in the state. Its rise merely got accentuated by the Ayodhya movement. In fact back in the 60s, Mysore was also one of the states where the other conservative party - "Swatantra" enjoyed some success. In 1962, barely 3 years into its founding, Swatantra polled over 7% in the state. So Jan Sangh and Swatantra together accounted for 10% of all votes!

So three remarkable features of Karnataka politics -

1. The failure of Dravidian politics to take root 
2. The dominance of INC throughout the state's history 
3. The state's hospitality to right wing parties and its incredible response to the Ayodhya movement

Some important Questions that arise in this overall discussion are the following:

1. But what makes Karnataka special? 
2. Why has the state bucked the trend in its neighboring states towards greater regionalism? 
3. Why has the state stood by the Congress for as long as it has? 
4. And why has BJP succeeded in Karnataka while failing miserably in rest of the south?

These are questions that are difficult to answer conclusively. Karnataka is very much a part of the Dravidian southern bloc, in lingual terms. It is a state that has had a distinctive regional political culture going back atleast 1500 years Yet it has proved to be different

One of the reasons for this lies probably in the lingual diversity of the state which has prevented language based fundamentalism from emerging, notwithstanding the dominance of Kannada as the lingua franca in the state. As per a recent available census of 2001, Kannada is the mother tongue for only about 66.3% of the state's inhabitants. Other mother tongues include - Urdu (10.5%), Telugu (7%), Tamil (3.6%), Marathi (3.6%), Tulu (3%), Hindi (2.6%), Konkani (1.5%), Malayalam(1.3%) and Kodava(0.3%). An incredibly diverse state. This is in sharp contrast to say Tamil Nadu, where Tamil is spoken by 88% of the population and AP where Telugu is the language of 84%. In Kerala, Malayalam is spoken by 97% of the state's inhabitants!

The other aspect of Karnataka that makes it different from other states is the enormous regional diversity both in landscape and culture. While South Interior Karnataka (often dubbed "Old Mysore") remains the heartland of the state with a very dominant Kannada culture, this is less true for other parts of the state. The coastal areas have considerable Tulu, Konkan, Malayali minority presence. The north western part is usually dubbed "Bombay Karnataka" with very significant influence of Marathi culture. While the North Eastern portion is an arid desert with significant Telugu minority. In fact, the town of Dharwad in north west Karnataka is regarded as the capital of Hindustani music (the north indian variant of Indian classical music). It is regarded as a town where north meets south! Probably emblematic of the state's complex cosmopolitanism.

The other distinctive aspect of Karnataka is the incredible cosmopolitanism of its capital city - Bangalore, where the politics is centered. Bangalore by most accounts has less than 50% Kannada speakers. This is in sharp contrast to Chennai where Tamil is spoken by close to 80%. The multi lingual character of Bangalore isn't new fangled. The city atleast 50% non-Kannadiga even back in the 1940s-50s in its early years as the state's capital, long before its emergence as a PSU and later IT hub. 

The other interesting characteristic of Karnataka is its social structure and culture. The two dominant castes are Vokkaligas and Lingayats which between them account for nearly 35-40% of the population. The Brahmins number around 2-3%, but higher than other southern states. Unlike the Madras Presidency, a culture of Anti-brahminism never developed in Karnataka to the same extent. This is probably because the brahmins in Karnataka had historically succeeded better in sanskritizing language and culture than brahmins in TN, Kerala or AP. The Kannada language is easily the most sanskritized of all the four southern languages (though some Malayalis may object). More importantly there is no gulf in the language spoken by different castes. The Kannada of a brahmin is no different from the Kannada of a Lingayat. This is in sharp contrast to say TN, where to this day, there is a gulf in the language across castes. Brahmin tamil remains a distinctive Tamil dialect. The Tamil brahmins were simply put, less successful, in sanskritizing the language of the masses than the Kannada brahmins.

Similar observations can be made in terms of general culture. Karnataka is home to one of the highest rates of vegetarianism outside of North India. Over 20% of the population is vegetarian, unlike the rates of 2-4% in the states of TN, AP and Kerala. While in the other 3 southern states, vegetarianism remains a mark of "brahmin culture", in Karnataka, vegetarianism is mass culture to a significant extent. 

The other reason for the lack of the development of a "Dravidian" culture in Karnataka is the strong conflict between the two dominant groups - Vokkaliga and Lingayat, in just about every respect. The Vokkaligas are largely inhabitants of "Old Mysore". While Lingayats are dominant in northern Karnataka. So there is a geographical distinction. Lingayats are vegetarians and teetotallers. Vokkaligas are heavy meat eaters. Lingayats are anti-brahmin! While Vokkaligas are not. 

So there never has been a "Dravidian" consolidation in Karnataka, given the diversity that is inherent to the state and the healthy rivalry between the two dominant upper caste groups. 

These are some of the important reasons why Karnataka remains unique, and so is its politics! A truly unique state with a particularly distinctive political, social and lingual culture! 

Feel free to chip in with more thoughts! All the views expressed here are my personal views.

Karnataka War Front - A trade-off between being Constitutional and Ethical

To all those who are saying 'Democracy Won' after the recent turn of events in Karnataka i.e. announcements of the results on 15th May 2018. Sorry I doubt if it has.

There are pre-poll alliances out there in open where the voters asses the alliance collectively and exercise their choice while casting votes. And then there are last minute post election alliances. The later represents the sheer growing opportunism in our blood. 

JDS and BSP went into this Karnataka election in alliance and spoke actively to the voters listing and highlighting the negatives in Congress and BJP and so did the Congress and BJP.

JDS, BSP and Congress joining hands is a representation of the punctured spines of our political class and the complete disregard they have to whatever they say pre poll. It is a representation of how immaterial and insignificant is the ideological and aspirational investment of a voter in a vote for her/his political leader. How vanished or non-existent are concepts like uprightness in the way we operate as a society.

Similar episodes of post poll alliance happened in J&K where BJP and Mehbooba Mufti's PDP joined hands, and also in Maharashtra where BJP and ShivSena joined hands post election ignoring every convincing exercise each of these parties did to make the voters believe how gross and unhealthy will be the arrival of the other. 

Nitish Kumar and BJP did the same in Bihar. The well articulated and well stitched grand alliance of Janta Dal(United), Congress and RJD won 180 out of 243 seats in Bihar. The voters vehemently rejected BJP by they losing on almost 4/5th of the seats they contested. Yet last year Nitish conveniently ditched the collective mandate and joined hands with BJP. What puts me to wonder is, how do you do it without a wrinkle on fore head, I mean for 5 years that is from mid of year 2012 to mid of year 2017 BJP and Nitish despised each other, infact Nitish's entire campaign was curated around how hollow and fascist the BJP is. 

No, Democracy doesn't win when your vote which is a cumulative investment of your trust, aspirations and ideologies is mauled mercilessly in the unadulterated pursuit to remain in power.

What we witnessed yesterday wasn't democracy's win but mere prevention of a constitutional fraud, was mere salvaging some of India's tattered democracy which the BJP President and Karnataka's governor were determined to finish it altogether.  

I wish we don't bask for too long in the slight comfort reeling out from how things unfolded yesterday but feel disturbed on how effortlessly we have been pushed into making peace with 'unethical' vs  'unconstitutional' 

To the BJP supporters in the Karnataka Elections, You project that you reject Congress on how corrupt they are and then you rejoice over Yeddyurappa being named as the Chief Ministerial candidate, the man who was forced to resign from his Chief Ministerial post in 2012 and sent to jail for illegal mining. There are running cases on him of his involvement in murder, extortion and land scams. You reject Congress on corruption and then you accept BJP giving 7 tickets to the famous Reddy Brothers, one of them has spent 42 months in jail for illegal iron ore mining. How do you manage to pull of such hypocrisies? The truth is you are absolutely fine with corruption. You just use the word as your cover for your English Speaking Urban Bigotry. The truth is that the indoctrinated soft hate and convenient demonization you carry in your heart for a set of people gets a channel to outflow and flourish under the saffron Umbrella. Your shallowness and hypocrisy like your political leaders kissed height when your heart was rooting for the brazen buying of the elected representatives. 

I want BJP supporters to offload themselves from the cloak of anti-corruption, anti dynasty politics, come out in open and scream for your burning desire for hegemony. Stop serving the image they want to be perceived in. Their truth deserves the right to be known, to hide it is cowardly.

To the ones over glorifying Supreme Court, What did the Supreme Court do ? 

Well, It played a neutral referee.

 

Isn't that what it is supposed to do at the bare minimum level. Our overt sense of thankfulness towards an institution for just being how they are expected to be underlines the acute dearth in trust and expectations we are left with, in and from such institutions. 

History stands testament to the fact that there have been innumerous cases in past where judgments coming from Supreme Court have been extremely biased. So lets be done with the overglorification. It biases your mind and clouds your vision and therefore unknowingly disempowers you to question that figure. Let the institutions pass through your critical lens every single time, case by case, in individual capacities. 

Nevertheless, I firmly believe in acknowledging and will appreciate in writing that it was very gracious of SC to fix hearing at 1: 45 am on 16th of May. Deserve every bit of kudo for giving more than 3 hours from midnight to dawn. I went through the excerpts of the transcript of the hearing. It was a hearing with quotient of patience par excellence. There would be rare examples of courts making themselves available for justice during that hour of the day at such short notices. No denying, acts like these do restore a degree of faith back in guardian institutes like Supreme Court. Thank you.

Key Takeaways:

• Despite a monument built out of failed promises, despite the carnage of facts and history in his speeches Narendra Modi continues to be the most loved political leader in contemporary India. 
• Congress for the first time in last 4 years has shown dynamism in resistance, a welcome change for the health of democracy
• Due acknowledgment to those MLA's who were offered bribes running into hundreds of crores, threatened by public institutions from the likes of CBI, Income Tax, whose family were under threat. Thank you for not giving up too soon. 
• D K Shivkumar of Congress has emerged as a rare and remarkably astute politician. Guarding 117 MLA's from being bought for 72 hours from the likes of men as powerful and veteran as Amit Shah was no mean feat. 
• There is no direct opposition to Narendra Modi in 2019's LokSabha election, there is no space for a triangular contest on the lines of a BJP, Congress and A Third Front. If there is a fight, if at all there is; it is between the BJP and United Front.
• We have come to the lowest of our political culture as a nation, Horse trading got normalised to such extent that people from both the sides alike were literally finding it exciting and not dangerous. 

Prediction 

- Though the BJP has been shown that there are limits to your arrogance and high headedness. Their mannerism to subvert and collude every public institution has got checked but Amit-Modi duo are highly egoistic and ambitious individuals. They will not rest here, and an attempt to destabilize the upcoming coalition government will soon make inroads.

All views mentioned in this article are personal 

Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: Why congress has an edge in fight between Siddaramaih and Amit Shah!

Karnataka Legislative Election 2018 looks as if  Rahul has outsourced it to Siddaramaiah and Yeddyurappa has outsourced to Amit Shah

With a little more than a month to go for the Karnataka polls - one of the most-awaited electoral battles this year - political fights are heating up in the southern state. And while there hangs a certain cautious optimism in the Congress camp, the saffron party seems to be fumbling to find a definitive narrative to take on chief minister Siddaramaiah’s regional sub-nationalism, populist image, unwavering hold on his loyal voter base and deft political management.

With Narendra Modi’s aura of invincibility now looking to fade and the grand old party attempting to find its mojo back, the Karnataka elections in all likelihood will set the tone for assembly polls in four more states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Mizoram) ahead of the grand battle in 2019 where BJP don't look either confident or winnable except in Mizoram.

And going by the current optics and political developments, the Congress seems to be on a sound footing. And this optimism is not unfounded. The first signs of this were seen in the 2016 zilla panchayat elections. The Congress secured 46.88 per cent of the votes and won 498 zilla panchayat seats and 1,709 taluk panchayat seats while the BJP won 406 and 1,362 respectively.

Coming to recent developments in Karnataka, few days ago, Bharatiya Janata Party national president Amit Shah, at a press conference, said: “The B.S. Yeddyurappa (naming the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate instead of chief minister Siddaramaiah) government is number one in corruption.” The faux pas made things worse for the BJP, which is struggling to build a campaign based on anti-corruption and governance to fight Siddaramaiah and the Congress party.

For the BJP, this entire election depends on its ability to amplify the anti-incumbency – a decisive factor in Karnataka, where no incumbent government has been re-elected in over three decades. But it is facing an inherent crisis of credibility after having projected Yeddyurappa as the chief ministerial candidate.

Yeddyurappa had to step down as chief minister in 2010 following allegations of corruption, and making him the chief ministerial face was a forced decision. He would have split the party like he did in 2011, had he not been nominated. That’s why he was chosen – even though he lacks a clean image and is already 75 years old.

In this scenario, Shah is the one leading the BJP campaign in the state. The Congress seems to be shrewdly crafting a narrative of Siddaramiah vs Shah, in a state vs Centre battle.

After announcing the controversial decision to have a separate Karnataka flag, Siddaramaiah, in a Facebook post, made the case for greater federal autonomy and questioned the principle of allocation of finances. The effort is to build a narrative around the Centre’s injustice towards Karnataka and emerge as the champion of the state and local language.

Centre vs state disputes over the allocation of resources are common in India. To mix that with linguistic and regional identities could lead to a dangerous, but electorally powerful, cocktail.

In many ways, the Congress is like a regional party in this election, led by a regional satrap, and is using linguistic and regional chauvinism to combat anti-incumbency. It’s similar to how Prime Minister Narendra Modi used “Gujarati asmita” and regional pride to his advantage in Gujarat when the UPA was in power at the Centre. His party is at the receiving end now.

In all these issues, state flag or federal autonomy, the BJP state leadership has been forced into silence. Challenging Siddaramaiah would mean risking the perception of going against regional sentiments, but endorsing him won’t help the party electorally at the state or ideologically at the national level.

This has further brought the focus on Shah as the one challenging Siddaramaiah’s statements and engaging the chief minister in a public debate.

The Congress hopes to turn this to its advantage and pit Siddaramaiah as the champion of the state against Shah as the face of the Centre. Rahul Gandhi, for instance, is not dominating the debate like he did in Gujarat, and its Shah vs Siddaramaiah, online and on the ground.

While Shah has been at the forefront of party campaigns in Uttar Pradesh or Gujarat, the larger narrative was a Modi vs Rahul battle. In Karnataka, the BJP has not been able to make it a Yeddyurappa vs Siddaramaiah battle, and a regional satrap usually has the edge over a national leader in a state election.

This apart, the state government’s decision to recommend religion status for the Lingayat sect has created confusion in the BJP. The Lingayats are divided into various sub-sects and form about 14% of the state’s population.

Yeddyurappa’s calling card is that he is the most powerful Lingayat leader in the state, but the religion tag has forced him to spend most of his efforts in consolidating his core base.

Even Congress leaders admit that they may not get a sizeable chunk of the Lingayat votes, but giving them the religion tag has denied the BJP a chance to be on the offensive.

Finally, the BJP needs something to turn the tide. One hope for the party is that Modi will be a powerful counter to the regional sentiments whipped up by the Congress. But at the moment, the Congress and its rare regional satrap seem to have the edge.

All views expressed in this article are personal 

Will Naidu's divorce from Modi makes him a good guy?

In January this year (2018), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) sided with the Opposition parties inside Parliament over the issue of the Triple Talaq Bill. The BJP was not amused as it saw in the move an indication of things to come.

It was right.

Late on Wednesday  evening, 7 March, the TDP announced its decision to exit the NDA government, making its divorce from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a matter of time and formality.

Those in the know of things say it was coming for a long time. Though the two parties share power both in New Delhi and in Andhra Pradesh, relations have been anything but smooth. State BJP leaders have taken frequent potshots at matters of governance and the TDP is convinced they have New Delhi's approval. In a rare outburst in January, Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu said he is willing to walk out of the alliance if the state BJP leaders were not reined in.

“Because of coalition dharma, we are keeping quiet. If they don't want us, we will do ‘namaskaram’ and chart our own course,” he said.

More Problems Than Just Money Matters

The Union Budget that gave zilch to Andhra Pradesh was the last straw. The TDP argued that since this was the last Budget before the elections, the BJP had made its intentions clear on not helping out Andhra, a state that suffered huge financial loss, with no state capital, no industry after the bifurcation in 2014.

Naidu has spent the last one month setting the stage for his exit. It was imperative he packaged it well because having enjoyed power in Delhi for four years, the decision to quit at the last minute could boomerang as well. On Wednesday, the decision to quit was gift wrapped as one taken in Andhra interest, but the real reason looks more political.

BJP and TDP have differing versions to offer on how much has been given or not given to Andhra. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley claims that minus the nomenclature of Special Category Status, which was a promise made by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Parliament and reiterated by Narendra Modi during the 2014 election campaign, Andhra would get the same financial benefits.

This meant the Centre will fund all special projects in the ratio of 90:10 as opposed to 60:40 ratio for other states. But the TDP is insistent on the tag and the tax and investment concessions that will come with it. The Centre is reluctant because more backward states like Bihar have been denied the status.

But it is not just the differences over money matters that ruined the TDP-BJP relationship. When Naidu met Modi this January, it was after a gap of a year. It was widely said that the Andhra CM had found it difficult to secure an appointment, surprising given his stature as an important ally of the BJP.

Things took a turn for the worse two days ago when Jaitley reportedly told a delegation of TDP leaders that the country needed funds for defence as well. The implication was that Andhra was demanding far more than what was due to it.

“When we asked for help, we were met with grave injustice. You spoke as though we were asking all money at the cost of the defence of the country,” Naidu rued.

A Calculated Risk

What Naidu has done is a calculated risk. His sense would be that there is a palpable sentiment among the people of Andhra that they have been deceived twice over, first by the Congress when it divided the state going against popular sentiment of the people in the region and now by the BJP. To exploit that emotion politically and project himself as the sole protector of Telugu interest, Naidu might have taken this step. This can very well get him a second term in office.

Soon after the decision was taken, Nara Lokesh, Naidu’s son and Andhra’s IT minister, said the TDP had waited and believed in false promises enough. Underlined was an accusation of deception.

By raising the pitch against the BJP, what Naidu has also done is to ensure that his bete noire Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy does not ally with the saffron party. YSR Congress leaders would be wary as the BJP is seen as a falling knife at the moment in Andhra.

The BJP will have some reason for discomfort because it is being pilloried as an undependable ally, someone that does not keep its word. While it does not have much to lose in Andhra because it is hardly a political force to reckon with in the state, it will hurt its image in the rest of the country and reinforce its image of a bullying Big Brother.

The other worry is about how corporates will react to this political decision. The industry could be wary of making fresh investments unless it is confident about the Centre helping the state establish infrastructure. While Naidu is looking to borrow to fund his projects, it comes with a huge risk of adding to the debt burden.

Given that the people of Andhra feel emotional about being let down, this positioning may help Naidu. But will it be good for Andhra? When ‘friend’ Modi is said to have not helped Naidu, would ‘foe’ Modi help if he returns to power? How does Andhra gain by investing in the same TDP when it has been unsuccessful in getting gains for the state? Those are the questions the electorate of Andhra will need to answer when it votes a year from now.

This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.

Are winds changing their direction in Indian Politics?!

Slowly but surely, the Congress is shuffling back into the game and Rahul, the man who everyone, including his own party, gave up on, is chiefly responsible for that.

In October 2012, Rahul Gandhi said in Chandigarh that seven out of every ten youth in Punjab had a drug problem. It sounded like an outrageous statistic and his claim was met with derision and ridicule. Even the fact that this was probably the first time a national leader had mentioned the subject in public was ignored – the very fact that Rahul had said it made it a legitimate subject for not just online trolling but also media criticism. Once again, it was emphasised that the young Gandhi family scion was simply not cut out for politics.

Since then of course Punjab’s drug problem has found its way into the political discourse, popular culture and journalistic investigation. We don’t now contest that it is a severe one, just what is the true extent of it and what is the solution.

Rahul in those days and for a long time could do no right. He was the object of ridicule, the callow and immature Pappu in contrast to the street smart, canny and clever politician Narendra Modi. Whenever Modi spoke of Rahul, it was in terms designed to humiliate. The election results in 2014 and several times subsequently showed the glaring contrast between the two as political players. Even those not inclined towards Modi were dismissive of Rahul and of course the trolls had a field day, making cruel fun of him.

Now, the tables have turned. Rahul is in a position where every utterance by him – even frivolous ones, like the tweet about his pet dog – is met with great approval. His US tour, where he met with academics, journalists and NRIs, has impressed many skeptics (nothing like endorsement from the West) and now he draws huge crowds in India wherever he goes.

At the same time, Modi has come under fire not just from politicians for the problems created by demonetisation and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, but even the business community, his greatest supporters, are angry. The PR spins about how both these initiatives have actually achieved a lot – the banishment of black money, reduction in terrorism and fake currency, a switch over to digital currency – have failed in the face of harsh realities on the ground. Small businesses are folding up and people are losing jobs. Even the BJP’s own MPs are now beginning to talk about it. Modi’s favourite economists may claim demonetisation was a success, but nobody is buying that anymore and this could have political repercussions in Gujarat, where elections will be held next month. A resurrected Congress, led by the same Rahul, is gearing up to give a good fight to Modi in his home state. An electoral upset could be humiliating and could set off an unpredictable chain of events; winning Gujarat is imperative for Modi.

The strangest things happen in politics and there is no saying how the public views its leaders and changes its mind, but it is still worth asking how this reversal came about. That the sheen has worn off Modi after three and a half years is understandable; people go by their experience and at the moment many Indians are hurting and more worryingly, have little faith that their lives will get better any time soon. But why is Rahul getting so much traction? Is it just that he is a port in the storm and Indians are ready to try him, or is it something more? No one is yet saying that he will defeat Modi in 2019 or even in Gujarat, so why bother to invest in him?

There are no easy answers, because public opinion is always a mercurial, even fickle thing, impossible to predict and difficult to fully understand. One cannot even assume that Rahul’s rising popularity and Modi’s dipping ratings are connected. Modi still has significant support. But there is no denying that Rahul is now being taken very seriously.

Indeed, the BJP, and especially Modi and Amit Shah, never did not take Rahul seriously. They saw that as long as Sonia Gandhi and Rahul were at the helm of affairs, the Congress would continue to remain a political contender – the constant refrain of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat‘ may have been a sign of the BJP’s arrogance, but also showed that unless it was completely eliminated, there was always a chance it would rise again. And to finish off the Congress, it was imperative to demolish the Gandhis, not just politically but as people.

The ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’ remark was the first time any political rival had said something of the kind at a time when Modi was at his peak. It was less than a year after Modi won his stupendous victory and it stung. That jibe became a kind of leitmotif and Modi has done everything in his power since then to show he cares for the common Indian citizen and is not just preoccupied with the issues of big business. His closest supporters have been startled at the populist turn of his policies (though of course in practice it is the humble citizen who has been crushed under them the most).

The point is that Rahul did on occasion have the ability to strike, but the narrative of him being indolent and largely ineffectual was so deeply rooted that nobody was willing to give him a chance. Faced with immense hostility from the BJP, its troll army and a media which moves in herds rather than think for itself, he remained a non-starter. In addition, his own party men were not inclined to fully back him up – in the absence of any clear signalling by his mother and senior party bosses, he was handicapped and did not have the full support of his own party. In addition, he was a poor public speaker who looked even weaker when compared to the bombastic Modi. Congressmen deserted the party in droves and some even blamed him directly for their decision.

But many who met him privately said, pleasantly surprised, that he was bright and well-mannered. They praised his grasp of issues. They expressed astonishment that this side of Rahul was not visible to the general public. But it was; he made several good speeches, but it was only when there was a peppy, headline-worthy remark – such as ‘fair and lovely scheme’– that it was given any significant coverage.

The US visit was an opportunity to speak to serious audiences without the ambient noise of the Indian media and Twitter nitpicking over every small word and remark. When every stray, often out of context, statement becomes a major ‘controversy’ in the Breaking News cycle and is analysed on the loop by breathless journalists, it is difficult to look at the matter soberly.

In the US, Rahul said that Modi was his prime minister too, refusing to get drawn into taking cheap potshots at him. He admitted that dynasty was a fact of life in Indian politics. In his sessions with editors of the big papers, he spoke about the Indian and the global situation (it was his insistence that the meetings remained off the record). All this filtered back to India and was met with approval, even some respect. The same people who laughed at him now saw him in a different light

Since then, he has been hitting pay dirt and his speeches are being given more coverage than in the past. He comes across as cheerful, relaxed and sharp. He is back to coining phrases like Gabbar Singh Tax, which catch the fancy of the social media. And he has also shown some political acumen in trying to tie up with the Patidar and other groupings in Gujarat.

In contrast, Modi the prime minister is sounding defensive and almost desperate – he has been holding public meetings all over the small state of Himachal Pradesh and has many rallies lined up in Gujarat. It hasn’t helped that his own party men like Yashwant Sinha are criticizing his policies. A year ago, what Sinha said wouldn’t have mattered; today it is lapped up. More significantly, the comedians are out in full force and hilarious memes on Modi are all over the place. Things have changed.

It may still not make the crucial difference in Gujarat and the BJP may still form the next government. That will give Modi much-needed breathing space and confidence as he marches towards the 2019 elections. Also, popularity with social media users is one thing, winning elections is another. Most of all, and this is something that Rahul needs to think about, his party is not making its stand clear on crucial issues such as secularism and the rising intolerance in India. We need him to make a forthright statement on where he and his party stand. Yet, slowly but surely, the Congress is shuffling back into the game and Rahul, the man who everyone, including his own party, gave up on, is chiefly responsible for that.

Did Left made another bigger blunder by denying third Rajya Sabha term to Sitaram Yechury?!

It took four hours for the CPI(M) to once again take a regressive step. Eloquent speaker and one of the best known Left voices, Sitaram Yechury, has been disallowed from sitting in the Upper House for the third time.

This comes at a time when the national party has been struggling to retain its all-India status; leave alone spread its influence in the country. In today’s age of divisive politics played on communal lines, the voices of the Left are more significant in Parliament than ever before. A vibrant democracy demands it.

Sitaram Yechury’s second and current stint in Rajya Sabha, which would end in August as the Upper House re-elects its members, has been more than stellar.

Whether it’s demonetisation, GST or jobless economy, the beef lynchings or cow vigiliantism, the anti-minority bent of the ruling BJP in the Centre, or the Money Bills passed unceremoniously in Lok Sabha that were heavily criticised and revisioned in Rajya Sabha – Yechury has been one of the tireless leaders of the Opposition’s pack, holding the government to account at every step.

The Left parties, especially the CPI(M), though are a curious lot. They want to hold on to the dogmatic ideology at the cost of everything else.

A heavily divided Central Committee opined on Tuesday that Yechury making it to the Rajya Sabha with Congress support defeated their political/tactical line affixed at the last Party Congress. The CPI(M) wants to maintain equal distance from both the BJP and the Congress, even at the cost of its fast-increasing political isolation.

It is this general rigidity that has cost the party heavy political losses in the past as well. In 1996, West Bengal chief minister and veteran Marxist leader, Jyoti Basu, had the chance to rewrite history by becoming the Prime Minister of India. The hardliner commies would have none of that.

The CPI(M) would not have its leader become PM because the Congress was supporting the government from outside. It’s also widely unknown that Rajiv Gandhi had appealed with Basu to become PM on two other occasions during 1990-1991 as well.

In 2008, Prakash Karat-led CPI(M) found it more viable to pull the plug on Congress-led UPA-I over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The days of arduous politicking and attempts of holding out an olive branch were summarily dismissed by Karat, who in his hubris further isolated a party the ideology of which finds few takers in new, now increasingly Modi-fied India.

The sacred ideology that certain sections of the party hold on to for dear life should be a means to an end. But CPI(M) sources from the West Bengal faction say that they fought tooth and nail to impress upon the party leadership that having Yechury as Rajya Sabha member would be a strength and not a weakness.

The fact that Congress was supporting the move was also a necessary evil. The Congress and the Left had aligned ahead of the West Bengal polls last year. Bengal leadership from both sides felt that it’s the best bet against Mamata Banerjee and the BJP, which has turned its divisive attention to the state.

The Left’s idea of a Third Front proved a dud. Friends like Samajwadi Party have fallen by the wayside. Politics needs allies, and realistically, the Left has only the Congress to join hands with.

But the highest decision-making body of the CPI(M), the Central Committee, comprising grand old daddies and other fogies, will never allow that to pass. Their myopic politics seems stuck in a time warp with the leaders making the same mistakes over and over again.

They refuse to keep pace with time, rejecting growth and evolution, and in the process becoming further estranged from today’s youth. There is no “alternative Left school of thought” in India any longer; the Indian Communists have unfortunately ensured that.

Make in India: Perception v/s Reality

It is always good to breakdown a complicated problem into parts for an easy understanding. Here let me take down the discussion by understanding the Importance of "Make In India", Past of Indian Manufacturing sector and then Claims v/s reality in Today's India

Importance of Manufacturing sector and Make in India:

No large country can become rich without manufacturing the goods that are consumed or demanded by its people. Most services, especially the basic, low technology and low value-added services will anyway be produced within the country. A country will move up the ladder of prosperity if it can manufacture the goods and produce the services required by its people and also export a considerable part of those goods and services.

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi was therefore absolutely right when he stated that his government’s goal was to give the highest priority to ‘Make in India’ and called upon the world’s manufacturing companies to “Come and make in India”.

Past of Indian Manufacturing sector: Manufacturing gaining its ground

The share of manufacturing in India’s GDP is about 16.5 per cent. Agriculture has declined steeply and the Services sector has risen sharply but, notwithstanding the changes in the shares of the two sectors, manufacturing has gained ground. 70 per cent of manufacturing units are in the private sector and about one-third of those are with the quasi-corporate and unorganized entities. Manufacturing’s share of GDP has risen steadily from 9.8 per cent in the 1950s to about 16.2 per cent in the 2010s. Our Government promised a further boost to manufacturing as part of its Make in India sloganeering.

To make a product and capture a significant market share is not an easy task. There may already be one or more persons making the same product. It may be imported too. To make the product, the intending manufacturer must make it better or cheaper or reach it to the consumer sooner or be able to offer something which makes his product more attractive to the consumer. It is here we face the hurdle of ‘factor costs’. Land, labour, electricity, technology, transport, cost of capital, cost of borrowing, and many others are factor costs. Unless some or all factor costs are favorable, no one will embark upon manufacturing.

The major manufacturing economies of the world have reached their positions by making factor costs more advantageous if the product were made in their countries rather than made elsewhere. Making in a country must provide a ‘competitive advantage’ to the manufacturer. Take cars. They were first mass-manufactured in the United States. When Germany and Japan emerged as major economies, they offered competitive advantages and the industry shifted to Germany and Japan. A few decades later, car manufacturing moved to South Korea. A couple of decades later, a significant portion of car manufacturing shifted to India.

The shift to India was not fortuitous. It was because of a well thought out strategy that was translated into clear policies. That story which began in 1991-92 deserves to be told separately.When our government promised to make India into a global hub of manufacturing, One assumes that it had been advised and it had reflected on the many hurdles that had to be crossed. 

We generally refuse to believe that ‘Make in India’ was just another slogan to enthuse the large gathering on Independence Day, 2015 but Is reality very different from what is artificially trending in social media and by so called Supari journalists?!

Claims v/s reality in Today's India:

Two years later, what is the status of ‘Make in India’?

The CSO has released the quarterly growth rates of Gross Value Addition (GVA) of manufacturing at constant prices (2011-12). I have placed them along side the growth of overall GVA:

	Manufacturing Sector GVA		Over all GVA
	2015-16	2016-17	2015-16	2016-17
Q1	8.2	10.7	7.6	7.6
Q2	9.3	7.7	8.2	6.8
Q3	13.2	8.2	7.3	6.7
Q4	12.7	5.3	8.7	5.6

Since the announcement of ‘Make in India’ on August 15, 2015, there is no evidence that manufacturing has gathered momentum. On the contrary, it seems to have lost steam and, in 2016-17, the sector had weakened considerably. Between Q1 and Q4 of 2016-17, the growth rate of manufacturing GVA had halved. The weakness of the manufacturing sector is reflected in the steady drop in the growth rate of overall GVA.

The conclusion is that apart from the announcement of ‘Make in India’, there has been little policy or administrative support. All other data points to the same conclusion. In the five quarters between Q4 of 2015-16 and Q4 of 2016-17, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a proportion of GDP had declined — 30.8, 31.0, 29.4, 29.4 and 28.5. A drop of 2.3 per cent in 12 months is a disaster. Considering that GFCF was 34-35 percent only a few years ago and the government has done nothing to step up private as well as pubic investment, it is a catastrophe.

Data points to flop:

Data on IIP point to the same conclusion. In May 2014, the index was 183.5, in August 2015 it was 184.8, in March 2016 it was 208.1 and in February 2017 it had fallen to 190.1.

Data on credit growth point to the same conclusion. Credit growth to the industry sector has been negative since October 2016. Credit growth to micro/small and medium industries has been negative since March 2016 and June 2015 respectively.

Data on job creation point to the same conclusion. The eight leading job-creating industries created only 109,000 jobs during the period April-September 2016. That is a sign of stagnation.

Data on electricity demand point to the same conclusion. The average Plant Load Factor of thermal plants is about 60 per cent reflecting poor demand for electricity.

Everyone including me had welcomed ‘Make in India’. It was innovative and aspirational. Unfortunately, it appears that there was little homework done before and practically no policy support after. ‘Make in India’ has turned into a hollow slogan.

All data mentioned in the article had been taken from Bloomberg and CSO, Ministry of  Statistics

All views mentioned in this article are personal